Will the Democratic Party win the KY-02 House seat?
Current price
3.6¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.6%
$8.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if reporting is contested or ambiguous. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including explicit provisions for independent or third-party candidates based on ballot listing or stated intent to caucus when all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the Kentucky 2nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections. If a winning candidate is not ballot-listed under a major party, their affiliation is uniquely determined by their most recently expressed caucus intent when all 2026 House races are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate who wins the KY-02 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, if not listed under a major party, by the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with any other party wins the seat. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity arises, resolution is decided solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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