Will the Democratic Party win the IN-04 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$31.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves cleanly based on the winning candidate's party in Indiana's 4th congressional district for the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some discretion to deciders regarding when races are settled, but includes a formal backup to official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity occurs. The rules clearly define how independent or third-party candidates will be classified based on their stated intent to caucus, minimizing edge-case uncertainty.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Indiana's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the IN-04 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by the candidate's ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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