Will the Democratic Party win the IL-15 House seat?
Current price
3.55¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.55%
$24.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows standard election resolution mechanics for the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for interpretation regarding when an election is conclusively called, but the rules include a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises. The rules also explicitly define how party affiliation is handled for independent or third-party candidates via caucusing intent, leaving little room for unexpected surprises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Illinois's 15th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the IL-15 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are called, or by the party with which an unaffiliated winner most recently expressed intent to caucus. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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