Will the Republican Party win the IL-14 House seat?
Last captured price
2.4¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.4%
$18.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on the winning party for the 2026 Illinois 14th Congressional District election. The outcome initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named outlet, though it designates official Federal Election Commission records as a definitive fallback if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is established, including specific provisions for third-party or independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Because determination depends on when all House races are conclusively called or officially certified by election authorities, final resolution may be delayed if vote counting or legal challenges extend past election night.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Illinois's 14th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus with Republicans if unaffiliated. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.