Will the Democratic Party win the IL-08 House seat?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the winner and their party affiliation will be determined for the 2026 congressional race, including explicit provisions for candidates not formally listed on the ballot as Democrats or Republicans based on their stated caucus intent. Initial resolution relies on judging a consensus among credible media reports, but an unambiguous fallback to official Federal Election Commission records is provided if reporting remains unclear. Normal post-election vote counting timelines apply, but the mechanics align directly with standard congressional election outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the IL-08 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The resolution considers a candidate's party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are called, including their expressed intent to caucus if not ballot-listed.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat is a member of the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Democratic Party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Democratic Party, based on the same criteria. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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