Will the Democratic Party win the ID-02 House seat?
Current price
4.9¢
+1.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.9%
$25.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the race, target seat, and election cycle. Party affiliation rules account for independent or unaffiliated candidates by referencing their declared intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting across news organizations, which introduces some judgment in determining when an election is conclusively called, but the rules provide a concrete official fallback to Federal Election Commission data if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win Idaho's 2nd congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the ID-02 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or stated intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with a different party wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date on which the 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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