Will the Democratic Party win the IA-04 House seat?
Current price
0.35¢
−1.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$40.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the outcome depends on which party wins the Iowa 4th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is determined primarily by ballot listing, with a defined fallback to declared caucus intent for independent or third-party candidates. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude in determining when a consensus is reached, but the rules include a formal backstop to official Federal Election Commission certified results if any reporting ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Iowa's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the IA-04 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by the candidate's ballot listing, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed on the ballot, at the time all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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