Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat?
Current price
95.15¢
Implied probability 95.15%
$44K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House race for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District. The conditions clearly define how candidate party affiliation is assigned, including explicit rules for candidates lacking a standard party ballot label by referencing their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission reports in case of ambiguity. Standard election calling timelines apply, and the rules leave minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives election for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the HI-02 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The date when the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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