Will the Republican Party win the HI-02 House seat?
Current price
3.4¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.4%
$37.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House election for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how non-major party candidates will be classified based on their caucusing intentions. Initial determination relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Resolution aligns well with standard expectations for congressional election markets.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with or intending to caucus with the Republican Party wins Hawaii's 2nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or their most recently expressed caucus intent if unaffiliated with either major party when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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