Will the Republican Party win the HI-01 House seat?
Current price
3.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.5%
$35.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. The criteria for determining party affiliation are clearly defined, including explicit instructions for non-major party candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which requires some interpretation of media calls, but the rules provide a clear official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Hawaii's 1st congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. Party affiliation includes candidates who explicitly caucus with the party if not listed on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the HI-01 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with any ambiguity resolved solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved by the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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