Will the Democratic Party win the GA-14 House seat?
Current price
4.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.55%
$9.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the seat for the party, including explicit handling for independent or third-party candidates based on ballot listing or stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous. Timing may be somewhat delayed because party affiliation is evaluated only after all national 2026 House elections are conclusively called, or when official government results are finalized, but the resolution terms directly match the plain meaning of the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the candidate winning Georgia's 14th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections represents the Democratic Party, including unaffiliated candidates who intend to caucus with Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the GA-14 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats at the time all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the United States government via the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.