Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat?
Current price
9.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$25.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 GA-12 House election based on a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous. Resolution timing depends on when all 2026 House races nationwide are conclusively called, which could introduce a delay if other districts experience prolonged recounts or runoffs. Party affiliation rules are clearly specified, including handling independent or non-major-party candidates by their most recently stated caucus intentions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Georgia's 12th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who express intent to caucus with Democrats if not affiliated on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the GA-12 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, or is an unaffiliated candidate who most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with the Republican Party or otherwise fails to meet the Democratic criteria. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity arises, official results reported by the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election day: — Midterm elections take place
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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