Will the Democratic Party win the GA-11 House seat?
Current price
3.4¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.4%
$36K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the criteria for determining which political party wins the specific congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections, including explicit instructions for non-major-party candidates based on their stated caucusing intent. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some room for decider judgment regarding media calls, but the rules include a definitive backup to official Federal Election Commission records if results remain ambiguous or disputed. Because party affiliation and outcome criteria are clearly established, unexpected resolutions are unlikely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Georgia's 11th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the GA-11 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by the candidate's ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called, or by the party they most recently intended to caucus with if unaffiliated with either major party. The market resolves No if a candidate from a different party wins. The election result is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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