Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat?
Current price
96.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.2%
$52.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how the winner and their party affiliation will be determined for the 2026 GA-11 midterm election. A candidate without a major-party ballot listing is assigned based on their stated intent to caucus once all House races are called. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission named as the official fallback if there is any ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins Georgia's 11th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the GA-11 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party, such as the Democratic Party. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely based on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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