Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat?
Current price
2.55¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.55%
$26.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard objective election results for Georgia's 10th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission figures serving as an unambiguous backstop if reporting conflicts. Rules clearly define how candidate party affiliations are established, including a caucus-intent mechanism for independent or third-party candidates assessed once all House races are conclusively called. Overall, resolution mechanisms are standard, predictable, and offer minimal risk of surprising outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Georgia's 10th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned based on their declared caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the GA-10 congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The market resolves to No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or another party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called; candidates lacking a Democrat or Republican listing are treated as members of the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back solely to official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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