Will the Republican Party win the GA-10 House seat?
Current price
96.7¢
+0.45¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.7%
$40.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly specifies that resolution hinges on which party wins Georgia's 10th congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. Party affiliation is determined primarily by ballot listing, with a specific rule addressing non-major-party candidates via their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Georgia's 10th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Candidates lacking a major-party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the GA-10 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party under those terms. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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