Will the Democratic Party win the GA-09 House seat?
Current price
2.9¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.9%
$29.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning candidate's party affiliation for Georgia's 9th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including specific fallback criteria for independent or third-party candidates based on stated caucusing intentions. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, but provides a definitive official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Timing aligns with the general election cycle and standard race-calling processes without unusual cliff dates or disruptive edge clauses.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Georgia's 9th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the GA-09 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed caucus intent when all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Republican Party or another non-Democratic affiliation under the same criteria. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election takes place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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