Will the Democratic Party win the GA-07 House seat?
Current price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$18.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify the 2026 election for Georgia's 7th congressional district and clearly define how third-party or independent winners are categorized based on ballot listing or expressed caucusing intent. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an immediate official tally, but the rules provide a designated fallback to official Federal Election Commission data if ambiguities arise. Resolution depends on when all House races are conclusively called nationwide, which could cause slight delays during extended vote counts, but the mechanics remain straightforward and predictable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the GA-07 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market's resolution depends on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the GA-07 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties, their affiliation is based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party under these same criteria. Resolution is based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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