Will the Democratic Party win the GA-03 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$9.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome tracks the standard winner of Georgia's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, which involves some subjective judgment, but an official fallback to Federal Election Commission data is specified if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. Rules explicitly detail how party affiliation is determined, including how independent or third-party candidates are classified based on ballot listing or stated intent to caucus by the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Georgia 3rd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate in GA-03 is affiliated with the Democratic Party based on their ballot listing, or based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats if not listed on the ballot as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Party affiliation is evaluated at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back solely to official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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