Will the Democratic Party win the GA-01 House seat?
Current price
10.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$8.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party affiliation of the winning candidate in Georgia's 1st congressional district during the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous. Rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for independent or third-party candidates based on ballot listing or their stated intent to caucus at the time House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Georgia's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats if not ballot-affiliated with either major party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party, such as the Republican Party. Outcome determinations rely on a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, the Federal Election Commission serves as the official resolution source.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority.
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