Will the Democratic Party win the FL-28 House seat?
Current price
5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5%
$31.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the winning party is determined for the 2026 FL-28 House race, including explicit handling for independent or third-party candidates via their stated caucus intent. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some judgment in determining when a consensus is reached, but it includes an objective fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results in the event of any ambiguity. Market participants should expect standard post-election timelines for calls and certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the FL-28 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market's resolution depends on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or other identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, their party is based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Election Day:
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting; Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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