Will the Republican Party win the FL-28 House seat?
Last captured price
94.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.5%
$34.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the Florida 28th congressional district seat in the November 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly address potential corner cases, such as independent candidates, by checking their ballot listing or stated intent to caucus with either party once House races are called. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single specified media outlet, though official results from the Federal Election Commission serve as a defined fallback if reporting remains ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the FL-28 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are called.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins the FL-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The winning candidate's party affiliation is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the Republican Party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation, their party is determined by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called. This market resolves No if a party other than the Republican Party wins the FL-28 congressional district seat. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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