Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?
Current price
18.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 18.5%
$23.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins the 2026 midterm election for Florida's 25th congressional district. The rules specify how to attribute party affiliation for candidates without a standard major-party ballot listing, relying on their most recently expressed caucus intent once all House races are called. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. The standard mechanics provide little room for surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Florida's 25th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-25 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or for unaffiliated candidates, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — Date on which the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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