Will the Democratic Party win the FL-24 House seat?
Current price
96¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96%
$18.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly based on which party wins the 2026 Florida 24th congressional district election. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible news reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as a definitive fallback if any ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly define how third-party or independent winners will be treated based on their public intent to caucus with either party at the time all House races nationwide are decided. The mechanics are standard and match general expectations for a congressional election market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the FL-24 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections. A candidate lacking a major party ballot listing is classified by their most recently expressed caucus intent once all House races are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the FL-24 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or by the candidate's most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats at the time all House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day for the 2026 midterm congressional races.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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