Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?
Current price
54.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 54.5%
$26K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a win for the Democratic Party in the FL-22 House seat during the 2026 midterm elections, including explicit guidance for candidates not formally listed on the ballot as Democrats or Republicans via their intent to caucus. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some decider discretion, but provides a concrete fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Timing and exceptional clauses are straightforward with standard election-calling procedures.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for Florida's 22nd congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-22 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by ballot listing or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The election outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, resolution relies solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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