Will the Democratic Party win the FL-21 House seat?
Current price
8.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.2%
$11.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the FL-21 House seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly address potential corner cases, such as independent candidates, by checking stated caucusing intentions. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some decider discretion, but an unambiguous fallback to official Federal Election Commission records provides a clear backstop if calls conflict.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the FL-21 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party label are classified by their stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the FL-21 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a candidate not affiliated with the Democratic Party wins. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House races are called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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