Will the Democratic Party win the FL-19 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$24.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines how the winning candidate's party is determined, including explicit provisions for independent or third-party candidates based on their stated caucusing intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named outlet, though official Federal Election Commission reporting acts as a clear backstop if reporting conflicts arise. Overall, the resolution mechanics align tightly with standard election outcomes, leaving minimal room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Florida's 19th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus once all House elections are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as a member of the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time all 2026 House races are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date on which the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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