Will the Democratic Party win the FL-17 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$23.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome condition based on which party wins the FL-17 congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Provisions are included for independent or third-party candidates by evaluating their ballot listing or stated caucus intention at the time all national House races are determined. While the primary resolution relies on evaluating a consensus of credible reporting, an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting limits decider discretion in disputed scenarios. Resolution may be delayed until all national House races are called, but the process is straightforward and matches standard expectations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for Florida's 17th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the FL-17 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently intended to caucus with once all House races are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. A consensus of credible reporting decides the winner, with official United States government results from the Federal Election Commission used if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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