Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat?
Current price
18¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 18%
$16.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on the winning party of the Florida 16th Congressional District election in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is any ambiguity. The rules explicitly specify how non-major party candidates are attributed via ballot listing or stated caucusing intent at the time all House elections are called, leaving minimal ambiguity or potential for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Florida's 16th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who caucus with the party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-16 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats if unaffiliated on the ballot. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in the event of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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