Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat?
Current price
7¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7%
$19.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves clearly based on the winning candidate's party affiliation for Florida's 11th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for candidates not formally listed on the ballot as Democrats or Republicans by checking their expressed caucus intent once all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Florida's 11th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the FL-11 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed as Democrat or Republican. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole authority if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.