Will the Democratic Party win the FL-05 House seat?
Current price
7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7%
$8.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 FL-05 House election based primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, falling back to official Federal Election Commission records if reporting remains ambiguous. If an independent or third-party candidate wins the seat, their party attribution will depend on which party they most recently stated an intention to caucus with by the time all congressional races nationwide are called. The resolution criteria are explicit and align closely with standard expectations for an election race.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the FL-05 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, with resolution based on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the FL-05 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if not listed, by their most recently expressed intent to caucus with a party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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