Will the Democratic Party win the FL-04 House seat?
Current price
13.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.5%
$11.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on which party wins Florida's 4th Congressional District in the November 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the outcome, with official Federal Election Commission certified results serving as a secondary fallback if the outcome is contested or unclear. For candidates not listed on the ballot as a Democrat or Republican, party designation will be evaluated based on their most recently expressed caucus intent at the moment all 2026 House elections nationwide are called. The resolution rules are well-defined, though market participants should note that third-party caucus determinations are pegged to the final nationwide resolution date rather than election day alone.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with or intending to caucus with the Democratic Party wins Florida's 4th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins Florida's 4th congressional district seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting is ambiguous, resolution relies solely on official election results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the sole official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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