Will the Democratic Party win the FL-03 House seat?
Current price
4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4%
$45.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves strictly based on which party's candidate wins the 2026 election for Florida's 3rd Congressional District. The rules define how non-major party candidates will be attributed to either the Democratic or Republican party based on ballot listing or stated caucus intentions. Resolution primarily relies on deciders evaluating a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single fixed source, though the Federal Election Commission serves as an official fallback in the event of ambiguity or dispute. Overall, the outcome aligns straightforwardly with the question asked.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win Florida's 3rd congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation are classified by their most recently stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-03 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently stated intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole fallback if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election date for the FL-03 congressional seat.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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