Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat?
Current price
6.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$6.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on the party affiliation of the candidate winning Florida's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for discretion in determining when a race is conclusively called, though an official government fallback to the Federal Election Commission is specified if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly handle independent or third-party candidates by attributing them to the party they intend to caucus with at the time all House elections are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins Florida's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are classified by their expressed caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-02 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party under those same criteria. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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