Will the Republican Party win the CT-03 House seat?
Current price
3.7¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.7%
$22.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome is anchored to the official 2026 midterm election result for Connecticut's 3rd congressional district. Primary resolution relies on decider judgment regarding what constitutes a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as an official fallback if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly specify how non-major party affiliations are handled by tracking ballot designation or caucus intent at the time all House races are called, leaving minimal ambiguity about the target seat and conditions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Connecticut's 3rd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CT-03 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Democratic Party or another non-Republican affiliation under these same criteria. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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