Will the Republican Party win the CT-01 House seat?
Current price
5.3¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.3%
$9.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the Connecticut 1st Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single specified media desk, leaving some judgement in determining when consensus is reached, though the Federal Election Commission serves as an official fallback if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how non-major party candidates are attributed via their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins the Connecticut's 1st congressional district (CT-01) seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. A candidate not listed under a major party is attributed to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CT-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as a Republican if they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party or intending to caucus with Democrats wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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