Will the Republican Party win the CO-06 House seat?
Current price
3.8¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.8%
$16.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the Colorado 6th Congressional District race in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly establish how candidate party affiliation is assigned, including an explicit standard for independent or third-party candidates based on which major party they intend to caucus with. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible news reporting once all House races are called, backed by an official fallback to Federal Election Commission results in the event of ambiguity. Because election outcomes and district winners are well-defined public events with clear official verification mechanisms, resolution risk is minimal.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Colorado's 6th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. Candidates without a major party affiliation on the ballot are classified based on their stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the CO-06 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Candidate party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or, if unaffiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties, their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Election day for the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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