Will the Republican Party win the CA-50 House seat?
Current price
3.1¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.1%
$30.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the CA-50 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single specified media outlet, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a fallback in the event of ambiguity. California election counts can take weeks to finalize, which introduces potential timing delays before official calls or certification occur. For third-party or independent candidates, party affiliation is explicitly assigned based on ballot listing or the candidate's declared caucus intent at the time all House races are called. The resolution criteria are straightforward and closely align with what a reader would expect from the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the CA-50 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The resolution considers a candidate's party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are called, including their intent to caucus if not ballot-listed.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-50 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is a member of the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with the Republican Party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Republican Party. The market resolves based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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