Will the Democratic Party win the CA-49 House seat?
Current price
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This market tracks the winner of the 2026 midterm election for California's 49th Congressional District. Outcome determination relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a secondary fallback if the outcome is contested or unclear. Clear guidelines are provided for attributing party affiliation if an independent or third-party candidate wins, looking at ballot designation or stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. California vote counts can take weeks to finalize, but the reliance on standard race calls and certified reporting makes unexpected outcomes unlikely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the CA-49 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market's resolution depends on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections is a member of the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not a member of the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If a candidate lacks a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties, their affiliation is based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Date:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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