Will the Republican Party win the CA-49 House seat?
Current price
3.55¢
Implied probability 3.55%
$8.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on the winning candidate's party affiliation for California's 49th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. California congressional races routinely take days or weeks to finalize vote counts, which can extend the timeline before a conclusive call is reached. The rules establish resolution primarily through a consensus of credible media reporting, falling back to official Federal Election Commission records if results remain contested or unclear. Clear provisions are also included to classify independent or third-party candidates based on their stated caucus intentions at the time all House races are decided, minimizing classification ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins California's 49th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CA-49 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or by their most recently expressed caucus intent if unaffiliated, at the time all House races are called. The market resolves No if another party's candidate wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.