Will the Republican Party win the CA-48 House seat?
Current price
6.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$17.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly specifies the target race as the California 48th Congressional District in the 2026 midterms. Outcome resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting to determine the winner, with official Federal Election Commission certified data serving as a definitive fallback if any dispute or ambiguity arises. Rules explicitly address potential edge cases, such as candidates without a major party label, by determining affiliation based on stated caucus intent at the time all House races are resolved.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market resolves on whether the Republican Party wins the CA-48 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, with candidate party affiliation determined at the time all House elections are conclusively called.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If a candidate is not ballot-listed as a Democrat or Republican, their party is determined by their most recently expressed intent to caucus with one of those parties at the time all House elections are conclusively called. This market resolves No if a party other than the Republican Party wins the CA-48 congressional district seat. The market resolves based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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