Will the Republican Party win the CA-46 House seat?
Current price
3.7¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.7%
$46.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly lays out how the winner and their party affiliation will be established, including provisions for candidates running without a major-party label based on their stated caucusing intentions. Initial resolution depends on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an immediate single authoritative feed, though official results from the Federal Election Commission serve as a formal backstop if ambiguity arises. California ballot counting and the final calling of all House races nationwide routinely take several weeks post-election, meaning resolution may take some time after election night.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win California's 46th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the CA-46 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The election date for the CA-46 congressional district seat.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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