Will the Republican Party win the CA-42 House seat?
Current price
3.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.15%
$26K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for California's 42nd congressional district. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission data serving as a backstop in case of ambiguity. California vote counting often takes weeks to finalize, and party attribution for unaffiliated candidates is explicitly tied to caucusing intentions at the moment all House races are called across the country. The criteria directly reflect the straightforward question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins California's 42nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-42 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with a different party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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