Will the Republican Party win the CA-33 House seat?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$14.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning candidate's party affiliation for California's 33rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how non-major-party candidates are categorized by looking at their declared caucusing intent at the time all House races are conclusively called. California vote counting often takes several weeks to finalize, and initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting before falling back to official Federal Election Commission records if ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for California's 33rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winner of the CA-33 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. Party membership is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed caucus intent at the time all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with any ambiguity decided solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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