Will the Republican Party win the CA-31 House seat?
Current price
3.85¢
+0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.85%
$10.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market clearly tracks whether the Republican Party wins California's 31st Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results if reporting remains ambiguous. California vote counts are notoriously slow and can delay final calls by several weeks, and the rule specifies that party affiliation is assessed once all national House races are called. Clear provisions cover independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot listings and stated caucus intent, minimizing ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win California's 31st congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. If a candidate is not listed under a major party on the ballot, their party is determined by their most recently stated intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for California's 31st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot, or if an unaffiliated candidate has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans at the time all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party or intends to caucus with Democrats. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.