Will the Republican Party win the CA-30 House seat?
Current price
3.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.25%
$15.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for California's 30th Congressional District. Outcome determination relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission records serving as the designated backup if reporting is ambiguous. Party affiliation defaults to the candidate's ballot listing, but the rules include specific provisions for unaffiliated or third-party candidates, assigning them to the Republican or Democratic party based on their stated caucusing intentions at the time all House races are called. While relying on reporting consensus involves decider judgment before official certification, the election result itself is a straightforward, publicly verifiable event.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win California's 30th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Party affiliation includes candidates who state an intent to caucus with the party if they lack a ballot-listed affiliation.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CA-30 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party counts as a Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if another party's candidate wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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