Will the Republican Party win the CA-26 House seat?
Current price
3.5¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.5%
$19.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines the race, election date, and how third-party or independent candidates will be categorized based on ballot affiliation or stated caucus intent. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, which involves some judgment, but it includes an explicit fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. California House races frequently take weeks to fully count and call, so participants should expect potential delays before the final outcome is established.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives election for California's 26th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the winning candidate of the CA-26 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves to No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if they lack a ballot affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties, assessed when all 2026 House races are called. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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