Will the Democratic Party win the CA-21 House seat?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for California's 21st congressional district. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if reports are ambiguous. Vote counting in California congressional races frequently takes several weeks, which may delay final resolution until calls or official tabulations are complete. The rules clearly define how candidate party affiliations and caucus intentions are handled if third-party or independent candidates are involved, minimizing surprise for participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for California's 21st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-21 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently stated caucus intent at the time all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with a different party under those same criteria. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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