Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat?
Current price
3.95¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.95%
$21.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the CA-21 U.S. House seat in the November 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as the fallback if results remain ambiguous. California election counts frequently take weeks to finalize close races, which may introduce counting delays before calls are finalized. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance that unaffiliated or independent candidates are assigned to a party based on their stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins California's 21st congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if a candidate not affiliated with the Republican Party wins the seat. Candidate party affiliation is determined by their ballot listing or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without a listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is classified by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission acting as the official source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date when the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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