Will the Democratic Party win the CA-18 House seat?
Last captured price
98.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 98.65%
$30.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly tracks which party wins the California 18th Congressional District race in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous. Holders should note that California election counts typically take several weeks to finalize, and the rules evaluate party affiliation and caucus intent only once all 2026 House elections nationwide are conclusively called, which could delay final settlement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the CA-18 House seat in the 2026 US midterm elections, with resolution based on the winning candidate's party affiliation at the time all House elections are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat is a member of the Democratic Party. The market resolves No if the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat is not a member of the Democratic Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties, their party is determined by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections:
Resolution source
Federal Election Commission
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